How Dominic Cummings and Boris Johnson Might Have Unwittingly Saved European Defence Autonomy

OneWeb, Eutelsat and European LEO Sovereignty

https://www.challengerresearchgroup.com/

by E Shannon & Dr J Reeves

Left: Dominic Cummings and Boris Johnson. Photo Credit BBC News. Right: Photo Credit Eutelsat.

In the chaos of the COVID-19 pandemic Dominic Cummings and Boris Johnson pulled off a rescue mission that may define Europe’s defence future. In saving OneWeb, a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite company, from bankruptcy in 2020, Cummings and Johnson may have inadvertently helped to save European defence autonomy. As seen during the Ukraine-Russia War, LEO satellites are now a vital part of modern warfare. LEO enabled aerial and naval drones have revolutionised warfare and European countries are realising that dependence on Elon Musk’s Starlink for these services is a strategic vulnerability.

After being rescued by the UK government, OneWeb continued to face serious cash flow issues and needed further investment to meet its deployment and coverage targets. In 2023, it merged with French satellite firm Eutelsat, creating the second largest LEO satellite operator after Starlink. More recently, French President Emmanuel Macron has recognised the company’s strategic importance to both French and European defence autonomy, calling it a “strategic treasure”. The French government recently led a €1.5 billion capital raise, injecting €717 million directly themselves, aiming to build a viable European alternative to Starlink – on which the West remains critically dependent. Macron has called it “madness” for France and its allies to depend on non-European LEO constellations and is backing Eutelsat as a European champion offering an alternative to Starlink. So, in an ironic twist OneWeb, originally rescued by Cummings and Johnson as a symbol of Brexit sovereignty, could emerge as a vital asset in European defence autonomy under French leadership.

OneWeb’s Founding and Rescue

Founded in 2012 by former Google executive Greg Wyler and headquartered in London, OneWeb, originally called WorldVu, set out to build a constellation of LEO satellites to deliver affordable, high-speed internet to underserved and remote areas around the world. Around the same time, SpaceX’s Starlink was emerging with similar ambitions. In fact, Wyler and Elon Musk explored joining forces to launch a mega-constellation of satellites, and for a brief moment, OneWeb and Starlink could have been the same venture. But, by mid-2014, discussions ended without a formal partnership, and the two companies diverged, developing in parallel as direct competitors. Ironically, what began as a shared vision is now a transatlantic rivalry, shaping the future of global connectivity and defence autonomy.

The parallel development continued until the COVID-19 pandemic hit. On March 27^th, 2020, OneWeb filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in a New York court following failed funding efforts as key backers withdrew amid the financial turmoil triggered by the pandemic. Encouraged by Dominic Cummings, then UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson made the controversial decision to rescue the company. After Brexit, British firms were barred from the EU’s Galileo global navigation system, a rival to GPS, and OneWeb was pitched as a way for the UK to develop its own alternative. Cummings explicitly framed the purchase as a symbol of “Brexit freedom”, aiming to bolster the UK’s presence in the space sector and prevent the technology from falling into foreign hands – specifically China. In July 2020, the UK Government and Bharti Global announced a joint plan to save the company investing £500 million each. As part of the deal, the UK secured a golden share, giving it special rights and veto powers designed to protect national interests and maintain strategic control over OneWeb’s operations.

LEO Satellites

Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites are defined as those operating at altitudes of between 160 to 2,000 km and move rapidly across the sky, completing an orbit in roughly 90 to 120 minutes – hence the need for large constellations to ensure continuous global coverage. Their low altitude translates to lower latency and higher data transfer speeds when compared to Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) satellites which operate between 2,000 to 35,786 km and Geostationary Orbit (GEO) satellites which operate above 35,786 km. Average latency for LEO satellites ranges between 20 to 50 milliseconds, compared to 120 to 150 milliseconds for MEO satellites, and 500 to 700 milliseconds for GEO satellites. As a result, each type serves different functions. MEO satellites are generally used for navigation systems like GPS and Europe’s Galileo – prompting some scepticism at the time of the OneWeb rescue, when Cummings and Johnson suggested that its LEO constellation could serve as a foundation for a UK equivalent of Galileo, which uses MEO satellites. Whereas LEO satellites, owing to their low latency have become indispensable for modern military operations.

The LEO Satellite Revolution in Modern Warfare

The Ukrainian NEMESIS drone. Photo Credit Militarnyi

The Ukraine-Russia War has demonstrated the revolutionary impact LEO satellites have had on modern conflict. Ukraine have primarily been using Starlink’s systems, and its impact is hard to overstate. LEO satellites offer critical advantages for modern warfare. Their high-speed and low latency enable real-time communication, intelligence sharing and precision targeting. Traditional fibre-optic networks, while fast and not susceptible to remote jamming, rely on fixed terrestrial infrastructure, which is locally deployed and vulnerable to sabotage and destruction. Similarly, local cellular networks can be quickly disabled by physical attacks or electronic warfare.

In contrast, LEO constellations, supported by globally distributed ground stations and a constantly changing web of satellites, are far more resilient - only the terminals are locally deployed. Their ability to operate independently of local infrastructure makes them useful for contested environments, offering militaries a persistent and hard-to-target communications backbone wherever it’s needed. These capabilities are useful in non-military emergency situations as well, like when 100 Starlink terminals were deployed during the 2021 German floods. Severe floods destroyed communication infrastructure, but using Starlink’s terminals families and rescue workers were able to get back online.

LEO constellations have enabled unmanned systems, particularly aerial and naval drones, to operate at unprecedented ranges, coordinated and guided via satellite links. With drones costing anywhere from a few hundred to several tens of thousands of dollars, yet capable of inflicting lethal damage, they have become a deadly tool of asymmetric warfare. In Operation Spider’s Web, for instance, Ukraine is estimated to have used just 117 attack drones to strike 41 Russian aircraft, including around a third of Russia’s strategic cruise missile-carrying bombers.

The Eutelsat-OneWeb Merger

In an ironic twist, just 3 years after being rescued by the UK government and Bharti Global – and heralded by Dominic Cummings as a symbol of Brexit sovereignty - OneWeb merged with the French GEO satellite company Eutelsat in September 2023. The deal created Eutelsat-OneWeb, a hybrid Anglo-French operator combining GEO and LEO capabilities. More than a corporate transaction, the merger marked a rare instance of post-Brexit industrial cooperation, with both the UK and French governments retaining stakes in the newly merged entity.

By the time of the merger, OneWeb was still struggling with cash flow pressures and required significant new investment to expand its satellite constellation and remain competitive in a market rapidly dominated by Starlink. For OneWeb, merging with Eutelsat provided access to capital, a broader customer base and the commercial infrastructure of an established player. For Eutelsat, who had until then operated only GEO satellites, the deal offered a way into the LEO market. Combining the two operators was expected to lead to synergies and a boost to revenues and profitability. Post-merger, Eutelsat operated 36 GEO satellites and 428 LEO satellites, making it the second largest LEO operator globally, though still dwarfed by Starlink, which at the time had 5,157 LEO satellites in orbit. Strategically, the new entity was pitched to be a global leader in space communications by combining its network of density and high throughput GEO satellites, with the low latency LEO satellites.

Starlink’s Dominance and the West’s Dependence and Strategic Vulnerability

Elon Musk. Photo Credit Reuters.

Today Starlink remains the largest and most dominant LEO satellite operator in the world, representing roughly 65-73% of all active LEO satellites. Their dominance in this strategically crucial sector means Elon Musk, a private citizen, wields disproportionate geopolitical influence. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Starlink is estimated to have deployed over 50,000 terminals and has been crucial in enabling Ukraine to defend itself. Consequently, Ukraine has become critically dependent on Starlink for both military and civilian communications, as no other LEO provider comes close to its scale or impact. Dependence on Starlink, a commercial operator, creates a strategic vulnerability not just for Ukraine but also the West.

Starlink’s dominance, combined with Musk’s increasingly erratic behaviour, has triggered alarm among Western leaders, not least French President Emmanuel Macron, who has described Europe’s reliance on foreign LEO constellations as “madness”. For Europe, the Ukraine-Russia war has driven home a hard truth: strategic dependence on non-European LEO systems, especially those subject to private or extraterritorial control, represents a serious risk. Alternatives are being explored, most notably Eutelsat, the world’s second-largest LEO operator with over 600 satellites. But Eutelsat currently lags behind in terms of capability, cost and the scale of terminal deployment. For now, Starlink remains indispensable, but Macron is actively pushing for European space autonomy. In that context, Eutelsat, while currently far from a match for Starlink, may prove a critical asset in restoring strategic balance and securing Europe’s digital sovereignty in future conflicts.

France’s Push for Eutelsat as a European Champion

Emmanuel Macron. Photo Credit Business Today.

In response to the West’s strategic dependence on Starlink for LEO services, France has led a €1.5 billion capital raise for Eutelsat, investing €717 million directly into the business themselves and more than doubling its ownership stake in the company. The UK government, despite no longer being an EU member, has joined the effort, committing €163 million to maintain its roughly 11% ownership stake. This injection of capital is part of a broader push to secure Europe’s LEO satellite autonomy and solidify Eutelsat’s role as a strategic European asset. The funding will support the expansion and upgrade of its LEO constellation, improving both capacity and coverage. Crucially, the capital raise will also deleverage the business, which stood at around 3.9x net debt to EBITDA at the end of 2024, with a target of 2.5x by the end of 2025. Reflecting this improved outlook, Moody’s has placed Eutelsat’s credit rating under review for potential upgrade, citing the increased French state support.

This renewed state backing comes as President Macron moves to embed Eutelsat more deeply within Europe’s defence and security architecture. A €1 billion, 10-year framework agreement signed with the French Ministry of Defence gives the military priority access to secure LEO capacity and includes measures to adapt the constellation for military-grade use. Macron has framed investment in Eutelsat as a question of European sovereignty, calling on European countries and companies alike to support the venture as part of a wider push to reassert Europe’s role as a space power. France has long harboured mistrust toward the US, particularly regarding Europe’s reliance on Starlink, and is now more assertively working to persuade other European countries to adopt its position. Under Macron’s leadership, France has increasingly sought to integrate civilian and military satellite infrastructure, capitalising on the cost, capacity and performance benefits of dual-use systems.

Security by Surprise: When Leaders Stumble into Success

What started as a Brexit freedom play by Cummings and Johnson to stake Britain’s claim in space has ended, with no shortage of irony, in a French-led venture championed by Macron as the key to European defence autonomy. LEO satellites have become critical infrastructure in modern warfare, maintaining communications in degraded environments and enabling unmanned systems to wage deadly asymmetric warfare. Yet this strategic domain is currently dominated by Starlink, a commercial platform controlled by Elon Musk, whose growing unpredictability has exposed a glaring vulnerability in Western defence planning. As Europe wakes up to the risks of outsourcing its military backbone to a private foreign actor, Macron is leading the charge for European space autonomy, placing Eutelsat at the centre of efforts to build a domestic, credible alternative.